Hossein Raghofer, professor of economics and member of the academic staff of Al-Zahra University and an economist, let’s go and his opinion about Iran’s economy Let’s inquire in the past year and 1403!
* We spent the year 1402 in a situation where the parliamentary elections were held in March. Now it seems that the composition of the next parliament is closer to the extremists than before. Hardliners who have been reluctant to accept global treaties like the FATF now have a majority in the upcoming parliament. On the other hand, the dollar price has increased again and the country’s economic balance is not in a favorable situation. In such a situation, what can be your prediction and analysis regarding the two major problems that are said to be from the crises of 1403? The problem of increasing the poverty line and the problem of inflation has led some to the conclusion that the government must go to gasoline. In this situation, what is your analysis about next year?
First of all, I must say that I don’t think this issue of extremists getting more power will be the way it is viewed and analyzed now. This group of extremists chants about this model when they are sitting outside the pit, but when they are responsible for themselves, they face the facts that they did not say these things when they were out of power. Or if you see that they themselves were in the parliament and were talking about these things, the reason was their political considerations and internal competitions within the parliament or with their opposing factions within the parliament.
We have seen that when the government changes, many of the general policies do not change and continue to spin on the same heels as before. Of course, one reason is that the parliament has no role at all. You can also see that the members of the parliament made so many slogans before they came to work, slogans such as economic reforms and building houses and reducing inflation, etc., but they did not pay attention to any part of it at all, and that in itself is a problem.
Therefore, in my opinion, economic issues like political issues and like many other issues are not in the hands of the parliament at all. The parliament also cannot play a role and has no role.
Maybe the reason is that economic issues are not in the hands of the parliament. The parliament has nothing to do with economic issues. Just like the government is practically useless. This is because you can see that they did not address these issues at all during the elections.
When the 11th Parliament came to office, one of its slogans was the issue of taxing empty houses. So what happened in the end? At the very beginning, they came with enthusiasm and passed a resolution that was very incomplete and very ineffective. They did not implement the same; Therefore, in my opinion, economic issues like political issues and like many other issues are not in the hands of the parliament at all. The parliament also cannot play a role and has no role.
With the conditions we are witnessing, who is in charge of managing the country’s macroeconomics?
Macro-economic and foreign policy issues are definitely decided in the important parts of the government, and therefore, this model of the words that the extremists express is only to gain positions, and otherwise they are not in the place of decision-making. A very key and decisive role in this case rests with the leadership because the active and main institutions of the country’s economy operate under his supervision.
These institutions have captured almost all of the country’s economy, and in return, they have given some small and expensive jobs to the government. Because they don’t have money, they can’t fulfill the expected obligations; Therefore, issues such as education, health, medicine, cars, housing, traffic, all these things are also the product of the presence of governing institutions in the country’s economy.
The correction of this situation is not in the power and authority of the parliament, nor the government, nor the judiciary; Therefore, if a correction is to be made, it should be pursued and followed through a higher way and with more serious rulings. Such rulings can also remove the conditions from this almost absolute monopoly that has arisen in the economy and free some sectors and leave them at the disposal of the private sector, or at least organize and specify the scope of duties and powers of these governing institutions in the economy. What share of the country’s economy should these devices have?
As long as this does not happen, the rest of the departments are not allowed to interfere in these matters at all. Now you can see that the tax system reform bill has been approved, and it is written on the very first page that the institutions under the leadership are exempted from this law. So what does this mean? Does this mean that these institutions do not pay taxes? That is when, in my opinion, at least 60% of the country’s economy is in the hands of these institutions. As long as these institutions are present in the economy with this power, and the remaining 40% are other sectors that the government must finance, the economic situation will not improve. The government cannot provide its resources at all.
Pay attention to the currency price situation. The reason for the increase in the currency price is to compensate and meet the needs of the government sector. It creates inflation, it creates recession, it has made the private sector run away from the country. All these things happened because of the presence of these institutions. The current situation is unprecedented due to the formation of this monopoly that exists in the country’s economy. Then the resources are distributed among a specific group. If it is currency, they will give it to this group. If it is Riyal and bank credit, they will give it to the same group.
Why were these banks created at all? The shares of many of these banks are also for these special institutions. In a way, it has happened that the banks are at the service of these institutions and not at the service of the private sector and society; Therefore, until these issues are not corrected in Iran’s economy, nothing else will be corrected.
In this situation, how do you predict the situation of the middle and sub-middle class for 1403?
– The situation of the middle and lower middle class is getting worse every day and this is very clear. The situation of the middle and low-income classes of the society is getting worse every day, because these institutions themselves are rumored that the price of the currency is going to rise to 70 thousand tomans and then it will happen. These rumors are made by insiders in order to create a basis for it in public opinion.
There are also people who benefit from these conditions. In fact, this particular group or population benefits from this situation and from the increase in prices. They are so-called private sector, but we don’t have a private sector and in the end they are the agents of these institutions. That is, they work with them in exchange, use its benefits and provide services.
Debash Chai, which is not private, was actually the agent of other institutions and these events happened there. But the problem is, who pays for these embezzlements and economic corruption? Middle and lower class of society. Now the lower class of society has been crushed and destroyed. Many of them are really destroyed. Now some of the lower middle class basically left the class and we have found the so-called underclass. This group has no class characteristics at all. They are not employable.
At least 18 years ago, we predicted that Iran’s economy is about to become Sao Paulo and this Sao Paulo economy has the same characteristics. It means it happened. Now the active workforce is decreasing every day.
You see, now some people have fallen into the hands of the country and are producing cryptocurrency from miners. They also have strange incomes. Whatever they raise the price of the currency is in their favor. It means that there is no economy that is completely unproductive and without any future and no clear vision in it; As long as these monopolies exist in the economy, the situation will not improve.
Regarding the Sao Paulo economy, I would like to know if you think we are in that situation or close to it?
– We are definitely in that situation now. It can get worse every day. See the growth of crime and insecurity in society now. These are parts of this economy. All of them are due to the growth of inequalities.
In this situation, where luxury houses were included in the tax department, many institutions are also exempt, and on the other hand, they target the middle and lower middle class, it is no longer strange to reach the economy of Sao Paulo.
At the same time, it is said that the government will probably have no choice but to increase the price of gasoline. If this happens, how do you see the situation?
– Although the price of gasoline has not increased, the prices of electricity, gas, etc. have increased for some time without noise, that is, without saying it, this happened and the price of many parts of energy has increased. Gasoline prices will definitely increase soon. What can people do? People can’t do anything; Unless they come to the street.
Unfortunately, coming to the street is just a show of this tragic theater that is going on now. Another form of it is the entry of more and more sections of the society into the fields of crime and crimes, theft, suicide, immigration, addiction and its growth. These cases are also other forms of protests; Therefore, we must witness the further growth of these phenomena. I say again that the result of this model of unsupported decisions could be the entry of parts of the society into the streets to reach their demands, which is quite possible.
Do you think we should expect the poverty line to increase in 1403 with the conditions you described?
– its definitely true. One of the components of the poverty line is the price of basic goods. When the price of goods increases due to inflation, the poverty line also increases; Therefore, more sections of the society fall below the poverty line. When they officially announce 50% inflation and give a 20% salary increase, it means that they are going to take 30% from the pockets of the employees who are subject to these increases, and it is clear that the people will also become poorer.
You said that the poverty line of a family of 4 in Tehran is 35 million tomans. Recently, the inspector of the Supreme Assembly of Representatives has assessed the poverty line of a family of 4 in the country at 25 million tomans. In your opinion, with these conditions and your own statement on 35 million and the same sentence of the inspector of the Supreme Assembly who announced 25 million in the country, how can the salary increase fill this hole and black hole? What can families do with this small figure of 20% salary increase next year?
– The same thing they have done so far. In 1403, we will witness the growth of poverty. We will have the growth of social damage, we will have the growth of immigration. We will have the growth of addiction. What can families do? The same thing they have done so far.
According to your explanations and the government’s indifference to the growth of the poverty line and the harms you say, can we say that a power oligarchy has formed in Iran that only wants to think about itself and its own interests? People are not in this game anymore.
– Yes, and this happened a long time ago. Who are these oligarchs? Who are the children who take the country’s resources and go and ask for asylum?
Or pay attention, in the conditions of embargo, when we export one million oil per day, who are these oligarchs who do not get off the devil’s ass, and continue to run like this. As long as this stinking aristocracy prevails in the country and the role of these oligarchs is very decisive, then we will witness the formation of this situation and the growth of inequality and poverty of the people and widespread corruption that has arisen as a result of these disorders, and as long as the structural reform and If nothing is done, it is not possible to get out of this situation or to find a light of hope at the end of this dark tunnel.
If you want to make a recommendation for economic reforms, however small, what is your recommendation for the presidential government for 1403?
The economy is not fixed by changing one or two variables. This situation, which everyone is protesting against today, is actually caused by the depreciation of people’s trust in the policies of the private sector, especially in the field of economy. People have lost hope and feel they are hanging in the void. They have no shelter and support. No one cares about them. In my opinion, the first thing that should be done is what to do so that we can strengthen this social cohesion. That which has been severely weakened during the last 35 years and is severely worn out today. We must revive this. This is only possible by reducing the unprecedented inequalities that have emerged in society today.
Doing this requires fundamental changes in many areas of the public sector and public policies. For example, the model of Iran’s presence in activities abroad, which definitely affects all sectors of the economy inside, because the scope of our activities abroad has become very wide and requires a lot of expenses. Now Iran is in a very sensitive situation and it is not possible to leave it. On the one hand, sticking to the previous decisions and situation means ignoring the people inside. But this is an event that has been chosen now, which means it is not an accident, but something that has been chosen. This opinion must change, otherwise the problems will continue and get worse.
Source: Badin Sun
گفتگو در مورد این post